The Ethiopian federal army states that it wants to avoid a new major escalation in the north of the country as fighting related to Tigray has spread to areas of Amhara and Afar. The chief of staff, Marshal Berhanu Jula, said that federal forces are responding with “restraint” to recent military developments.
This statement comes after several days of tensions and clashes involving Tigrayan forces and other armed groups. A coalition of seven movements opposed to the federal government recently announced its formation, heightening concerns about a possible expansion of the conflict.
The specter of the 2020-2022 war
The situation is particularly sensitive because Ethiopia is just emerging from the consequences of the Tigray war, which began in 2020 and was formally ended by the Pretoria agreement in 2022. This conflict caused hundreds of thousands of deaths according to several estimates and displaced millions of people.
Berhanu Jula also accused Eritrea of supporting and financing armed groups hostile to Addis Ababa. Eritrean authorities reject these accusations. Asmara, for its part, accuses Ethiopia of harboring ambitions regarding access to the Red Sea, which the Ethiopian government presents as a strategic issue to be negotiated.
The United Nations has expressed concern over the formation of new armed alliances, fighting, and reports of drone strikes. The tensions now affect several regions, complicating mediation efforts and increasing risks for civilians.
The next development will depend in particular on the ability of the federal government, the Tigrayan authorities, and other armed actors to avoid a new breach of the Pretoria framework.
