Two years ahead of France’s next presidential election, a new Ifop poll for the Hexagone Observatory shows the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) leading comfortably in voter intentions, regardless of the scenario.
Despite the recent conviction of its figurehead Marine Le Pen, the party continues to strengthen its electoral base. In the scenarios tested, both Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella surpass the 30% mark in first-round voting intentions. Bardella even reaches 35% in a hypothetical matchup against Édouard Philippe (24%) and Laurent Wauquiez (3%). In another scenario featuring Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau, Bardella is credited with 33%, well ahead of his challengers, both polling at 14%.
On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann edges out Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 15% versus 13%.
Second-round outcomes vary significantly. Édouard Philippe would narrowly defeat Marine Le Pen (52% to 48%) and tie Jordan Bardella at 50-50. In a face-off with Gabriel Attal, Bardella would win 52% to 48%. He would also defeat Bruno Retailleau (53%-47%) and cruise past Jean-Luc Mélenchon (67%-33%).
The poll was conducted between April 11 and 30, 2025, surveying 9,128 registered voters out of a representative sample of 10,000 French adults. An additional sub-sample of 1,838 likely voters from a panel of 2,000 was also included.
The results underscore a political climate in which the RN, despite ongoing controversies, appears to be solidifying its front-runner status heading into 2027.